Cheltenham Queen Mother Chase trends, tips and our analysis

Cheltenham Queen Mother Chase trends, tips and our analysis

Cheltenham Queen Mother Champion Chase trends, tips and our analysis

 

One of the hottest races of the week at this year’s Cheltenham festival comes on the Wednesday in the form of the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase. A race down the years that has sprung up some the greatest 2m chasers the sport has seen and also some emotional comebacks… yes, we’re talking about Sprinter Sacre’s 2016 victory. If that race didn’t bring a tear to your eye, then maybe this sport isn’t for you. This year see’s a legend take on the star of the future, in very exciting renewal. However before we dive into the runners let us first give you the trends for the last 10 years from this historic race.

 

 

Winning Rating
Year Horse Rating Starting Price
2010 BIG ZEB 168 10/1
2011 SIZING EUROPE 172 10/1
2012 FINIAN’S RAINBOW 174 4/1
2013 SPRINTER SACRE 192 ¼
2014 SIRE DE GRUGY 163 11/4
2015 DODGING BULLETS 161 9/2
2016 SPRINTER SACRE 170 5/1
2017 SPECIAL TIARA 163 11/1
2018 ALTIOR 179 1/1
2019 ALTIOR 167 4/11

 

 

On average in the last 10 years the rating sits around 170 with exception being Sprinter Sacre in 2013 who was widely seen as the best horse in the world at the time.

 

The most successful trainers of this race in the last 10 years are:

 

  • Nicky Henderson – 5
  • Henry De Bromhead – 2

 

The most successful jockeys of this race in the last 10 years are:

  • Barry Geraghty – 3
  • Nico De Boinville – 3

 

The rest haven’t won multiple times.

 

Age of Horse
Age Runners Winners
6 3 0
7 17 2
8 28 2
9 22 4
10 13 2
11 7 0
12 2 0
13 1 0
 

 

Winner Last time out
Winner LTO Runner Yes
Yes 62 7
No 31 3
 

 

Days Since last Run
Days Since last Run Runners Winners
< 25 10 0
26-50 40 5
51-74 23 4
75-100 13 1
101-150 5 0
300+ 2 0

 

2020 as an overview

 

The 2020 renewal of the Champion Chase see’s two time and reigning champion Altior (rated 175) back to fight for his crown for the third successive year. Last year’s champion fought off strong competition from Sceau Royale and Politolgue who both battled hard coming over the last. Altior eventually went on to win by just over a length proving to many that he has the ability to stay further. This left trainer Nicky Henderson looking at the options for running Altior over further.

 

This season that is exactly what Nicky did, running Altior for the first time at 2m5f against the highest rated horse in training Cyrname at Ascot. A win there would’ve set Altior up for a shot at the King George chase and potentially a Gold Cup challenge. However, things didn’t go that way and Altior was beaten for the first time over fences by Cyrname, leaving fans wondering whether Alitor was ever good enough for further.

 

Decision time again for Nicky saw him drop Altior back down in trip winning at 2 1/2f at Newbury and leading fans to believe Altior will be back to defend his title in the Champion Chase. The first defeat however has left many fans wondering whether this is the start of a decline for Altior.

 

A horse rated 170, who for sure isn’t in decline and very much on the up is Defi Du Seuil, the horse that stands in Altior’s way of a third straight Champion Chase victory. The 2017 Triumph Hurdle winner spent 2 years largely missing before emerging again last season. Defi Du Seuil began to make the 2m4f novice chase races his own, battling against 2020 Gold Cup runner Lostintranslation. Eventually going on to win the JLT novices chase at last years festival.

 

This season Defi Du Seuil has been racing at 2m, and is currently unbeaten, with one win already at Cheltenham this season after showing a tremendous turn of foot up the hill to see off Politologue. This horse has got real speed and that’s exactly what you need in this race.

 

If the race wasn’t shaping up enough for you, the Irish have sent over Chacun Pour Soi to spoil the English party. Chacun Pour Soi has already beaten Defi Du Seuil before at 2m back in May, albeit this was Defi’s first race down in trip and at the end of the season.  Willie Mullins 8 year old, who is rated 172 has ran twice this season. Finishing 2nd and 1st. The 2nd was behind A Plus Tard who is tipped to run in the Ryanair Chase on the Thursday instead. The only win this season was against last year’s 2nd in the betting Min, winning by a comfortable 3+ lengths.

 

What’s the betting?

 

With 3 hot horses coming into this race the betting is as expected very tight with the majority of sport makers are  struggling to split Altior or Defi Du Seuil, both hovering around 2/1 – 15/8, Chacun Pour Soi is only slightly bigger at 11/4 in places.

 

Looking at the trends

 

If you’ve looked at the trends displayed above, you’d probably be looking for a 9 Year old, rated 170, winner LTO and last ran 26+ days ago. None of the top 3 in the betting fit this, however they all have trends that past winners have shown. Had MIN of beaten Chacun Pour Soi last time out then you would be looking at the perfect match… however  Min is at 10/1 and we think it would be hard to discard so early.

 

Here’s an outline of the top 3

 

Altior

10 Year Old

Won last time out

Rated 175

Last ran 8th Feb 2020

 

Defi Du Seuil

7 Year Old

Won Last time out

Rated 170

Last ran 18th Jan 2020

 

Chancun Pour Soi

8 Year Old

Won last time out

Rated 172

Last ran 1st Feb 2020

 

Race of the week

 

The Queen Mother Champion Chase is one of many grade ones at next weeks Cheltenham festival, but on paper is for sure one of the best of the week. If the trends on this post haven’t helped you, then no worries just sit back and enjoy the race. Remember betting is meant to be fun and nothing else. With a race of such quality you’ll enjoy it either way!